Differentiated approach to the diagnostics of economic security and resilience of Russian regions (case of the Volga federal district)

Abstract

Relevance. Given the volatile global economy, unfriendly policy towards Russia and other external challenges, it is necessary to improve tools for predicting threats and risks to regional economic security and resilience. To this end, individual projections and indicators, as well as complex models should be examined. Research objective. The study aims to develop a new differentiated approach to diagnostics of indicators (projections) of economic security and resilience at the regional level, which can help visualize and evaluate threats to economic meso-systems. Data and Methods. Comparative and indicative approaches, ranking, piecewise linear approximation (scaling) and correlation analysis were used in the study. Results. As a result, the study presents the author's system of indicators of economic security and risks to the regional economy based on a differentiated approach. 36 indicators were grouped into 4 projections – general economic, social, technological and financial – and divided into sub-projections. In order to provide adequate and comparable estimates in the regional and temporal context, various methodological principles were used: application of relative indicators; assessment of cost indicators of regional development using the number of fixed market baskets (FMB) of the region (ratio of the regional cost indicator and the cost of a fixed market basket). Such approach allowed us to evaluate regional economic security in dynamics. The diagnostics of resilience of regional economic systems was performed in the context of individual projections by comparing crisis and relatively stable periods. Conclusions. The methodology was tested using data from regions of the Volga Federal District. The study revealed specific projections, sub-projections and indicators affected by threats, as well as demonstrated the ability of regions of the Volga Federal District to face the crisis and, in particular, resist sanctions.