Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina

Tamara Sofía Propato,Santiago R Verón,Diego De Abelleyra,María Semmartin

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03129-6

Abstract

The description of the relationship between temperature (T) and electricity consumption (EC) is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997–2001 and 2011–2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027–2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days (from flat to steep responses). The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.

Highlights

For centuries energy use was associated to human well-being (Ahuja & Tatsutani, 2009)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in the World Energy Outlook (2016) (IEA, 2016) estimated that electricity accounts for 30% of residential energy consumption, but due to the rapid uptake of appliances and cooling systems it is expected to rise more than 40% in 2040
The shape of the T-electricity consumption (EC) relationship during the period 1997-2014 differed across regions that encompass a marked temperature gradient (Figure 2 and Table 2)

Summary

Introduction

For centuries energy use was associated to human well-being (Ahuja & Tatsutani, 2009). This relationship might have been recently levelled off due to the extensive environmental impacts of energy generation. Changes in air temperature alter patterns of energy consumption, as the rise and fall of temperature increases demand for cooling and heating respectively (Dale et al 2011; Auffhammer & Mansur, 2014). The International Energy Agency (IEA) in the World Energy Outlook (2016) (IEA, 2016) estimated that electricity accounts for 30% of residential energy consumption, but due to the rapid uptake of appliances and cooling systems it is expected to rise more than 40% in 2040. Understanding of the energy-climate relationship, and more precisely the relationship between temperature and electricity consumption along a mean annual temperature gradient, is a critical requirement to improve energy planning within a context of a potential climate change amplification feedback

Methods

Results

Conclusion