Differential responses of crop yields to multi-timescale drought in mainland China: Spatiotemporal patterns and climate drivers

Abstract

Increasingly frequent and severe droughts pose a growing threat to food security in China. However, our understanding of how different crops respond to multi-timescale drought under varying climatic conditions remains limited, hindering effective drought risk management. To address this knowledge gap, we applied spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) to unveil spatiotemporal patterns in annual yields of major grain crops (rice, wheat, maize) and cotton in response to multi-timescale drought, as indicated by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) across China. Subsequently, predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) was employed to identify the primary climatic factors driving these response patterns. The findings indicated that drought-induced interannual variability of crop yields were spatially and temporally heterogeneous, closely tied to the timescale used for drought assessment. Crop types displayed distinct responses to drought, evident in the variations of months and corresponding timescales for their strongest reactions. The initial three principal components, capturing over 65 % of drought-related yield variance, unveiled short- to medium-term patterns for rice, maize, and cotton, and long-term patterns for wheat. Specifically, rice was highly susceptible to drought on a 4-month timescale in September, wheat on a 6-month timescale in May, maize on a 3-month timescale in August, and cotton on a 3-month timescale in September. Moreover, the first three discriminant functions explaining over 90 % of the total variance, effectively distinguish spatiotemporal crop yield response patterns to drought. These patterns primarily stem from seasonal climatic averages, with water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) and temperature being the most influential variables (p < 0.05). Interestingly, we observed a weak correlation between drought severity and crop yield in humid conditions, with responses tending to manifest over longer timescales. These findings enhance our comprehension of how drought timescales impact crop yields in China, providing valuable insights for the implementation of rational irrigation management strategies.