Differential Prediction of First Year University Performance for Students from Different Social Backgrounds

Abstract

In all States in Australia, the Higher School Certificate (HSC) or its equivalent is used to select students for entry to higher education, and it is generally considered to be the best predictor of first year performance. However, Dunn (1982) demonstrated, at the University of Melbourne, that HSC was a biased selector with respect to type of school attended. The present study tested that hypothesis at Monash University. In addition, an examination of selector bias was undertaken for other social background variables: father's occupational status as a surrogate of socio-economic status, and student's country of birth as a surrogate of ethnicity. It is shown that HSC is a consistently biased selector with respect to type of school attended but not with respect to father's occupational status or student's country of birth. Students from government schools perform as well in first year as those from independent schools who have an HSC score of the order of 10–25 marks higher (or about one quarter to one half of the standard deviation in HSC score).