Abstract

Students entering intensive English as a second language programs at various proficiency levels may make comparatively greater or lesser gains in proficiency over the same period of training. Whether or not some groups within a heterogenous student population can be expected to make significantly more rapid gains than others is the question addressed by this paper.’ Also tested is the assumption that scores on a standardized proficiency test can serve to identify individuals as likely to make greater or lesser gains. The problem of predicting differential gain rates is of particular interest to those involved in the intensive ESL program at New Mexico State University. Many students admitted to the program have had little or no preparation in English language skills, yet they are expected to be ready for graduate level work at the University after one year of language instruction. Our teaching strategies and program organization are therefore crucial to their academic success. It is hoped that a systematic analysis of relative gain would indicate if the prograrr is benefiting some types of students more than others. Significant biases, if found, would indicate the need for a thorough examination of program organization; possibly admissions policy would need to be examined if program goals were found unrealistic for all students currently being admitted. Numerous studies have examined the general problem of predicting success in language programs. Some have focused on individual characteristics of the learner (Carroll 1962), others with environmental variables of the classroom and school (Fatham 1976). Initial scores on an English proficiency test were analyzed by Mason (1971) who found them of no value in predicting the academic success or failure of international students at the University of Hawaii. Moran and Erion (1978) on the other hand found that initial scores on the Comprehensive English Language Test were significantly reliable predictors of academic success of American Samoan ESL speakers at the junior college level. Few studies have specifically observed the effect of an already attained proficiency level on further proficiency gains. Nevo, Sim and Bensousan (1977) examined 322 Israeli students in a non-intensive EFL reading course at Haifa University and found that generally students with higher entering scores on a proficiency test made greater gains on the same test a year later than did students with lower initial scores. The authors thus sum up their findings: “The rich get richer and the poor stay poor”. Similar results were obtained among tenth year English language students in a Swedish university (Marton 1972). However, until now no data has been available from intensive programs operating in the target language setting. The question remains, then, how adult L2 learners living in

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