Abstract
Background: Geo-spatial aspects affect the susceptibility and containment of infectious disease transmission. Small island geographies may make containment easy, but effective quarantine and isolation may be challenging due to different population density and living conditions. The mathematical models used in this paper aim to determine the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19, quantify the impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and forecast infection parameters in two types of island settings. The effects of the NPIs on the capital island and other are modelled islands separately.
Highlights
Geo-spatial aspects affect the susceptibility and containment of infectious disease transmission
There are modelling studies developed for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 [8], showing the effect of control measures, to assess the potential severity and transmissibility of the pandemic, and to determine the contagious period of this novel viral strain
The model applied to Maldives provides a deeper insight into the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 and quantify the impact of the NPIs in a small island context
Summary
Geo-spatial aspects affect the susceptibility and containment of infectious disease transmission. Small island geographies may make containment easy, but effective quarantine and isolation may be challenging due to different population density and living conditions. The mathematical models used in this paper aim to determine the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19, quantify the impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and forecast infection parameters in two types of island settings. The rapidly spreading COVID-19 pandemic that emerged from Wuhan China in December 2019 was imported to the small islands of Maldives through travelers with the first case being reported on 7 March 2020 [2]. There are modelling studies developed for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and COVID-19 [8], showing the effect of control measures, to assess the potential severity and transmissibility of the pandemic, and to determine the contagious period of this novel viral strain
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