Differential diagnosis of Crohn’s disease and intestinal tuberculosis: development and assessment of a nomogram prediction model

Abstract

BackgroundChina is a region with a high incidence of tuberculosis, and the incidence of IBD has also been rising rapidly in recent years. Differentiating Crohn’s disease(CD) from intestinal tuberculosis (ITB) has become a very challenging issue. We aimed to develop and assess a diagnostic nomogram to differentiate between CD and ITB to improve the accuracy and practicability of the model.MethodsA total of 133 patients (CD 90 and ITB 43) were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was included to determine the independent predictive factors and establish the regression equation. On this basis, the nomogram prediction model was constructed. The discrimination, calibration and clinical efficiency of the nomogram were assessed using area under the curve(AUC), C-index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve.ResultsT-SPOT positive, cobblestone appearance, comb sign and granuloma were significant predictors in differentiating CD from ITB. Base on the above independent predictors, a diagnostic nomogram was successfully established. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy of the prediction model are 94.4%, 93.0%, 94.0% respectively. The AUC and the C-index of the prediction model are both 0.988, which suggest that the model had a good discrimination power. The calibration curve indicated a high calibration degree of the prediction model. The DCA and clinical impact curve indicated a good clinical efficiency of the prediction model which could bring clinical benefits.ConclusionA nomogram prediction model for distinguishing CD from ITB was developed and assessed, with high discrimination, calibration and clinical efficiency. It can be used as an accurate and convenient diagnostic tool to distinguish CD from ITB, facilitating clinical decision-making.