Differential Development of Perceived Costs and Rewards of Offending the Relevance for Predicting Offending in Early Adulthood: A Group-Based Trajectory Modeling Approach

Abstract

ABSTRACT The present study sought to elucidate developmental patterns of perceived costs and rewards of offending and examine the relevance of this development for predicting offending in adulthood. The Pathways to Desistance data were used in analyses. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify latent patterns of development for both constructs. Negative binomial regression was used to test the relevance of differential development for predicting offending. A series of generalized estimation equations modeled age-graded changes in offending seriousness across the entire study period for each trajectory group identified in both models. Results indicated that a four-group model best fit the rewards data, while a three-group model best fit the costs data. Perceived rewards trajectory group membership significantly predicted offending in adulthood, with consistently elevated perception of rewards of offending found to be related to increased offending seriousness in adulthood. Differential development of perceived costs did not influence offending in adulthood. Consistently low and declining perceived rewards were associated with declines in offending seriousness across the study period due to participants getting older. Increasing perceived costs of crime were similarly associated with declines in offending seriousness across the study period due to age.