Different Types of ENSO Influences on the Indian Summer Monsoon Variability

Abstract

AbstractObservational analysis reveals three types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM): indirect influence of the preceding winter [December–February (DJF)] eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (DJF-only cases), direct influence of the concurrent summer [June–September (JJAS)] EEP SST anomalies (JJAS-only cases), and coherent influence of both the preceding winter and concurrent summer EEP SST anomalies (DJF&JJAS cases). The present study distinguishes the three types of ENSO influences and investigates the processes connecting ENSO to the ISM separately.In the DJF-only cases, the preceding winter EEP SST anomalies induce north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST anomalies through air–sea interaction processes in the tropical Indian Ocean. The SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean alter the surface air humidity there. Both processes favor an anomalous ISM. In the JJAS-only cases, an anomalous ISM is directly induced by ENSO through large-scale circulation changes. The meridional thermal contrast may also contribute to an anomalous ISM. In the DJF&JJAS cases, the preceding winter EEP SST anomalies induce NIO SST anomalies and change the surface air humidity over the western Indian Ocean. Concurrent summer EEP SST anomalies induce large-scale vertical motion anomalies over South Asia. Together, they lead to an anomalous ISM. The anomalous meridional thermal contrast may contribute to an anomalous ISM in late summer.Impacts of the preceding winter EEP SST anomalies in the DJF and JJAS cases may contribute to the contemporaneous correlation between ISM and EEP SST. There are more DJF&JJAS cases before than after the late 1970s. This provides an alternative interpretation for the observed weakening in the ISM–ENSO relationship around the late 1970s.