Abstract
Objective: This study examined cumulative excess mortality in European countries in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and characterized the dynamics of the pandemic in different countries, focusing on Hungary and the Central and Eastern European region. Methods: Age-standardized cumulative excess mortality was calculated based on weekly mortality data from the EUROSTAT database, and was compared between 2020 and the 2016–2019 reference period in European countries. Results: Cumulate weekly excess mortality in Hungary was in the negative range until week 44. By week 52, it reached 9,998 excess deaths, corresponding to 7.73% cumulative excess mortality vs. 2016–2019 (p-value = 0.030 vs. 2016–2019). In Q1, only Spain and Italy reported excess mortality compared to the reference period. Significant increases in excess mortality were detected between weeks 13 and 26 in Spain, United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherland and Sweden. Romania and Portugal showed the largest increases in age-standardized cumulative excess mortality in the Q3. The majority of Central and Eastern European countries experienced an outstandingly high impact of the pandemic in Q4 in terms of excess deaths. Hungary ranked 11th in cumulative excess mortality based on the latest available data of from the EUROSTAT database. Conclusion: Hungary experienced a mortality deficit in the first half of 2020 compared to previous years, which was followed by an increase in mortality during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 7.7% cumulative excess mortality by the end of 2020. The excess was lower than in neighboring countries with similar dynamics of the pandemic.
Highlights
On December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology from the city of Wuhan which were later identified as the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) caused by the novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1]
This study examined cumulative excess mortality in European countries in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic and characterized the dynamics of the pandemic in different countries, focusing on Hungary and the Central and Eastern European region
Hungary ranked 11th in cumulative excess mortality based on the latest available data of from the EUROSTAT database
Summary
On December 31, 2019, China reported a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology from the city of Wuhan which were later identified as the first cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) caused by the novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1]. Several Western and Southern European countries were facing rapidly growing numbers of infections and deaths in the spring of 2020, with Spain and Italy being the epicenters of the pandemic in Europe with the highest number of confirmed cases and the highest number of Covid-19 related deaths, respectively [6]. Infections and deaths due to Covid-19 remained relatively low in other countries as a result of timely restrictions and the implementation of social distancing measures [7]. Most European countries were hit by a second wave of the pandemic in early autumn 2020, which in many countries proved to be more severe than the first wave. By introducing very strict prevention measures early on, Central and Eastern European countries in general managed to avoid a great surge in the number of infections and deaths in spring 2020. Countries delaying the implementation of strict measures or following a herd-immunity approach such as Sweden and the United Kingdom (United Kingdom) experienced higher amplitudes of the first wave [7]
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