Different methodologies to quantify uncertainties of air emissions

Abstract

Characterization of the uncertainty associated with air emission estimates is of critical importance especially in the compilation of air emission inventories. In this paper, two different theories are discussed and applied to evaluate air emissions uncertainty. In addition to numerical analysis, which is also recommended in the framework of the United Nation Convention on Climate Change guidelines with reference to Monte Carlo and Bootstrap simulation models, fuzzy analysis is also proposed. The methodologies are discussed and applied to an Italian example case study. Air concentration values are measured from two electric power plants: a coal plant, consisting of two boilers and a fuel oil plant, of four boilers; the pollutants considered are sulphur dioxide (SO 2), nitrogen oxides (NO X), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM). Monte Carlo, Bootstrap and fuzzy methods have been applied to estimate uncertainty of these data. Regarding Monte Carlo, the most accurate results apply to Gaussian distributions; a good approximation is also observed for other distributions with almost regular features either positive asymmetrical or negative asymmetrical. Bootstrap, on the other hand, gives a good uncertainty estimation for irregular and asymmetrical distributions. The logic of fuzzy analysis, where data are represented as vague and indefinite in opposition to the traditional conception of neatness, certain classification and exactness of the data, follows a different description. In addition to randomness (stochastic variability) only, fuzzy theory deals with imprecision (vagueness) of data. Fuzzy variance of the data set was calculated; the results cannot be directly compared with empirical data but the overall performance of the theory is analysed. Fuzzy theory may appear more suitable for qualitative reasoning than for a quantitative estimation of uncertainty, but it suits well when little information and few measurements are available and when distributions of data are not properly known.