Different Effects of Lockdown on Public Health and Economy of Countries: Results from First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

This paper analyzes how longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 can affect public health and economy of nations. Results show that a) countries with shorter period of lockdown (about 15 days) have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown (more than one month); b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate lower than countries with longer period of lockdown, whereas variation of fatality rate suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown. However, the study reveals that the impact of longer period of national lockdown, as policy response of governments against COVID-19, pandemic seems to generate rather ambiguous effects on public health, however, this longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth of countries in terms of contraction of gross domestic product growth. Lessons learned can be important to design effective public responses for future waves of the COVID-19 and future epidemics similar to the COVID-19.