Abstract
COVID-19 conspiracy theories have proliferated during the global pandemic, and their rapid spread among certain groups may jeopardize the public health response (e.g., undermining motivation to engage in social distancing and willingness to vaccinate against the virus). Using survey data from two waves of a nationally representative, longitudinal study of life in lockdown in the United Kingdom (N= 1,406), we analyze the factors associated with belief in three origin theories related to COVID-19, namely that it 1) originated in a meat market in Wuhan, China; 2) was developed in a lab in Wuhan, China; and 3) is caused by 5G mobile networks. Our findings suggest that political-psychological predispositions are strongly associated with belief in conspiracy theories about the virus, though the direction and effect sizes of these predictors vary depending on the specific content of each origin theory. For instance, belief in the Chinese lab conspiracy theory is strongly associated with right-wing authoritarianism (RWA), social dominance orientation (SDO), and general conspiracy ideation, as well as less reliable news sources, distrust in scientists, and anxiety about the pandemic. Belief in the 5G network conspiracy theory is strongly associated with SDO, distrust in scientists, while less strongly with conspiracy ideation and information from social networks/media; RWA is strongly negatively associated with belief in the 5G conspiracy theory, with older and more wealthy individuals somewhat less likely to endorse it. The meat market origin theory is predicted by intolerance of uncertainty, ethnocentrism, COVID-19 anxiety, and less so by higher income, while distrust in scientists is negatively associated with this origin story. Finally, belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories is associated with negative public health behaviors such as unwillingness to social distance and vaccinate against the virus. Crucially, our findings suggest that the specific content of COVID-19 conspiracy theories likely determines which individuals may be most likely to endorse them.
Highlights
Major world events are known to spawn conspiracy theories
Endorsement of one COVID-19 conspiracy theory will correlate with endorsement of another (Hypothesis 1a) Conspiracist ideation will be positively associated with belief in COVID-19 origin theories (Hypothesis 1b) right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and social dominance orientation (SDO) will be positively associated with belief in the Chinese lab origin theory (Hypothesis 2) SDO will be positively associated with the 5G origin theory (Hypothesis 3) Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories will be negatively associated with social distancing motivation (Hypothesis 4a) Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories will be positively associated with vaccine rejection (Hypothesis 4b)
In this study we have tested hypotheses regarding the factors that predict COVID-19 origin theories, including two that we think fit the definition of a conspiracy theory, as well as one plausible, yet contested origin theory
Summary
Major world events are known to spawn conspiracy theories. This may be due, at least in part, to proportionality intuitions that render mundane explanations for important events inadequate and unsatisfying (Leman and Cinnirella, 2007; Douglas et al, 2019). The notion that Princess Diana died because her driver was drunk, or that John F. The COVID-19 pandemic is an event of immense global significance. The pandemic has occasioned massive social and economic upheaval, including nationwide lockdowns, school closures, the postponement or cancellation of major public events, and the largest global recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. At the time of writing, the pandemic is already responsible for millions of deaths worldwide
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