Differences Between Scientific Prediction and Subjective Expectation of Focal Region and Seismic Intensity of Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake

Abstract

This study quantitatively analyzes the differences between the actual focal region of the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake, which is expected to occur in the future, and the conceptual focal region drawn on the map by 595 students. It also examines the differences between the subjective expectation and the scientific prediction of the seismic intensity at the residence of the respondents, to find out the relationship between such differences and the variables of respondents such as residence, attributes and experiences, and others. As a result of the examination, the following findings are clear: the subjective expectation of the focal region of the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake deviates largely eastwards; those who have their own residence and parents’ home in the area forecasted to be affected by the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake recognize the focal region of the earthquake better; and those who have taken measures toward disaster prevention such as stocking goods for emergencies and participating in disaster drills account for a smaller percentage of respondents who underestimated seismic intensity at their residence.