Dietary shift can enhance the environmental benefits of crop redistribution

Abstract

Crop redistribution is widely recognized as an effective means of reducing the environmental costs of agricultural production without technological improvements. However, changes in food supply driven by dietary shift are rarely taken into account in crop redistribution. Based on inventory analysis of water consumption, land demand and carbon emission in crops production, this study constructed a linear optimization model to explore crop redistribution strategy and the saving potential of environmental costs in context of dietary shift. The results showed that crops production in 2030 would increase water consumption by 2.84%, land demand by 1.19%, and carbon emission by 1.31% compared with 2020 if the diet remained unchanged. Crop redistribution considering dietary shift provided an effective approach to achieve significant environmental benefits, including reductions in water consumption of 3.33%–14.91%, arable land use of 1.13%–13.90%, and carbon emission of 6.17%–20.26% compared to the baseline scenario, among which, dietary shift contributed 2.64 ± 6.12%, 0.75 ± 7.06%, and 1.32 ± 7.19%, respectively. The findings highlighted that appropriate dietary shift could enhance the environmental benefits of crop redistribution. Insights into the dietary shift and concomitant environmental benefits debate on crop redistribution have important policy implications for improving the sustainability of agricultural production.