Die Prognose von Wohnungsnachfrage und Wohnungsangebot

Abstract

Steadily rising costs for housing combined with a persistently high demand for affordable housing indicate that it is necessary to project housing supply and demand on a continual basis. This information supports decision- making in planning practice and for private investors so that the supply of households with housing can be secured in a timely manner. Various projection models can be found in the international literature. However, a conceptually oriented overview of the existing models and the underlying approaches is missing. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to systematise and evaluate different projection approaches in order to enable decision-making regarding the appropriate projection approach for the respective task. Two fundamentally different projection approaches emerge: component models and functional models. Component models divide the modelling of housing demand and supply into individual modules that work independently of each other. The modules interact via standardised interfaces in which output variables of the preceding module are transferred as input variables to the following module. Module-specific algorithms are used, which usually apply average ratios and rates. Functional models are based on an integrated concept in which input variables are functionally linked to output variables using multivariate statistical methods. The variables together with the model equations form an integral unit, so that individual parts of the model cannot be exchanged without altering the implemented correlations. The range of methods is broad and goes far beyond simple linear regression models. English title: The projection of housing supply and demand – a conceptual overview of projection models