Abstract
ABSTRACT The paper documents and tries to explain a striking negative correlation between COVID-19 mortality across countries and deaths during World War II. The correlation persists with various controls for observables and allowing for latent omitted variables, using the pre-war distribution of the Jewish population for identification. The correlation also survives influence and falsification tests, measurement-error adjustments, and tests for spatial autocorrelation, which can generate spurious historical dependence. We suggest a theoretical explanation whereby large shocks promote institutions and cooperative behavioral norms – interpretable as civic capital – that initially help attenuate losses from future large shocks, though with fading impact over time.
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