Abstract

The recent price rise in European electricity markets was not begin from the Russia's invasion of Ukraine but has gradually arisen during 2021. In the autumn of 2021, many media argued as if the cause of the price rise were low wind. This paper evaluates these arguments are appropriate or not by an economic empirical analysis. Since a simple linear combination model in MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) is not necessarily infer causality between explanatory variables and an explained variable, ERM (Extended Regression Model) in STATA is employed in this study. Also, using a counterfactual method, a quantitative evaluation of DOI (Degree of Influence) are performed to several European market including Denmark, Germany, France and Spain. The results revealed that no scientific evidence could be found to prove the argument that low wind caused the price rise in electricity spot market.

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