Did the war on terror deter ungoverned spaces? Not in Africa

Abstract

Many of the world's poorest citizens live in peripheral spaces their states have chosen not to control. Leaving these spaces ungoverned poses challenges for development, global terrorism, and conflict. Can the international community induce countries to invest in controlling their territory? I consider the Bush Administration's foreign policy, which, following the September 11th attacks, demanded that countries take active steps to reduce terrorist safe havens or risk a US invasion. Drawing upon recent work on the determinants of government control, I develop a difference-in-difference strategy to test for evidence of government expansions and implement this test using subnational data on conflict, government presence, and public goods in Africa. Across a wide range of specifications and measures, I consistently find precise estimates suggesting African states did not engage in these expansions. The results suggest that broad-based deterrence is an ineffective policy strategy to reduce ungoverned spaces.