Did the U.S BSE and EU27 HPAI Outbreaks Affect EU Meat Exports

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that EU-27 meat exports underwent structural changes following the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States (2003) and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in the European Union (2006). The two diseases caused short-term (11-month) drops in beef meat and poultry demand but increased export demand for pork meat, beef offal, pork offal, and other meat. These results—except for a decline in U.S. beef offal exports—are similar to those found by modeling U.S. meat export demand after the BSE incident of December 23, 2003. By 2012, U.S. beef meat exports had recovered and exceeded their pre-BSE levels, but EU beef meat exports were still 31 percent lower than in 2003.