Did the Macy’s in my mall close? Revisiting the closures of Macy’s, Sears, and JCPenney stores

Abstract

The large number of closures of department stores in recent years has called into question the role of traditional brick and mortar stores in today’s retail environment. Under this context, this research investigates if the characteristics identified as significant contributors toward department store closures are consistent across time and how store closures are related to spatial accessibility. The study employs logistic regression to identify the main contributing variables toward department store closures and a 2-Step Floating Catchment Area Method is to measure the spatial accessibility of department stores. Findings reveal that early on, stores in the Western United States were the safest from closures but that effect wore off over time. Larger stores in large shopping centers were more likely to close but that effect wore off for JCPenney by 2010. Older JCPenney stores are more likely to close consistently across time, while Macy’s and Sears closures have no association with store age. The results also suggest that in general there are more stores in areas with lower accessibility but the proportion of open versus closed stores within the different ranges varies by chain, with a general trend of less closures occurring in areas with higher accessibility scores. These findings provide important information for industry practitioners and retail managers to make strategic decisions.