Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Sink Trump’s Reelection?

Abstract

Abstract This chapter explores the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 election. This part of the chapter, Part 1, details the contrasting approaches of Biden and Trump. Part 2 traces the effects of the pandemic and the candidates’ alternative responses to it on perceptions and vote preferences. Relative to other issues, most voters—even many Trump supporters—saw the pandemic as a weakness for the incumbent. Attitudes toward and experiences with COVID affected vote choice, but perhaps less than one would have expected ex ante because Trump supporters downplayed the pandemic, consistently said the worst of the crisis had passed, and emphasized instead issues on which they felt Trump outperformed Biden, such as the economy. We also show that public attitudes toward scientific advisors and organizations became sharply polarized over time, with Biden supporters trusting them more and Trump supporters less so, with important implications for science communication and for the country’s ability to quell this pandemic as well as future ones.