Abstract
Starting in 1999, the Bologna Process reformed the German five-year study system for a first degree into the three-year bachelor's (BA) system to harmonize study lengths in Europe and improve competitiveness. This reform unintentionally challenged the German apprenticeship system that offers three-year professional training for the majority of school leavers. Approximately 29% of new apprentices are university-eligible graduates from academic-track schools. We evaluate the effects of the Bologna reform on new highly educated apprentices using a generalized difference-in-differences design based on detailed administrative student and labor market data. Our estimates show that the average regional expansion in first-year BA students decreased the number of new highly educated apprentices by 3%–5%; average treatment effects on those indecisive at school graduation range between –18% and –29%. We reveal substantial gender and occupational heterogeneity: males in STEM apprenticeships experienced the strongest negative effects. The reform aggravated the skills shortage in the economy.
Highlights
In recent decades, many countries have expanded university education to foster technological progress and economic growth
Some departments intentionally accelerated or delayed the introduction of the new program structure, we argue that the timing of the transition can be considered exogenous from the point of view of school leavers who face post-secondary education decisions in a certain regional labor market
Our empirical estimates show that the reform challenged the dual apprenticeship system, as more high school graduates from the academic track decided against apprenticeships (–3% to –5% on average)
Summary
Many countries have expanded university education to foster technological progress and economic growth. In addition to university education as a primary source of qualified labor, some countries, such as Germany—or, less recognized, Switzerland, Austria and Denmark—have a so-called dual apprenticeship system. It provides professional training for a large part of the population.. Since there is no restriction on who may participate, many high school graduates from the academic track have been trained.. Since there is no restriction on who may participate, many high school graduates from the academic track have been trained.2 This group has become increasingly important due to the size of its supply over recent years. In 2017, 29% of new apprentices were qualified for university—compared to 16% in 2000 (BIBB, 2009, 2019)
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