Did the Arab Spring generate affective polarization? Experimental evidence from five Arab countries

Abstract

ABSTRACT We examine whether disagreements about the Arab Spring uprisings, in five countries that experienced protests, have transitioned into the non-political sphere. To test this spillover effect, we ask two questions: (a) does interacting with fellow nationals who have opposing attitudes towards the Arab Spring generate less pro-social behaviour compared to situations where such disagreements are absent, and (b) whether the degree of affective polarization – if it exists – depends on the severity of the uprising’s outcome. We explore these questions by running two lab-in-the-field experiments – measuring fairness and interpersonal trust – with 1274 subjects from five Arab countries: Syrian refugees, Sudanese refugees, Jordanians, Tunisians and Egyptians. We find significant results on both fairness and trust among the Syrian sample – who experienced the most violent version of the events – and partly among Sudanese refugees. Our findings indicate that the intensity of political polarization (particularly turning it into a violent conflict and generating refugees) is critical in producing the hypothesized spillover effect of affective polarization.