Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia.

Abstract

In 2020, with a substantial decline in tourist arrivals slightly before the time of COVID-19, the innovative econometric approach predicted possible responses between the spread of human microbes (bacteria/viruses) and tourist arrivals. The article developed a conceptually tested econometric model for predicting an exogenous shock on tourist arrivals driven by the spread of disease using a time series approach. The reworked study is based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to avoid spurious results. The periods of robust empirical study were obtained from the data vectors i) from January 2008 to December 2018 and ii) from January 2008 to December 2020. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. The ARIMA model predicted the number of declines in tourist arrivals for the approaching periods due to the spread of viruses. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, pre-pandemic results confirmed a one-fifth drop in tourist arrivals in the medium term. In the short term, the decline could be more than three-quarters. A further shock can be caused by forecasted bacterial infections; less likely to reduce tourist demand in the long term. The results can improve the evidence for public health demand in risk reduction for tourists as possible patients. The data from the NIPH are crucial for monitoring public health and tourism management as a base for predictions of unknown events.