Did double lockdown strategy backfire? Cobra effect on containment strategy of COVID-19

Abstract

Every citizen responds to governments' protocols when imposed during a time of crisis. Yet occasionally they counter-react in a way that is not intended by the government, contributing to the cobra effect. The Government of Tamil Nadu, India implemented the double lockdown protocol in the pursuit of restraining the spread of covid −19. Nevertheless, the protocol leads to unanticipated consequences on the spread of novel coronavirus. The thrust of the study is to demonstrate the unprecedented consequences of double lockdown on the growth rate of covid-19 cases, instead of flattening the curve and subsequently reveal the cobra effect on the containment strategy of covid-19. For this purpose, the study adopted an event study methodology to test the effect of the announcement of double lockdown on the spike rate of new covid-19 cases in Tamil Nadu, India. The findings of the longitudinal data analysis revealed a significant increase in covid-19 cases after the government announced a double lockdown. A deeper analysis to determine the factors influencing the abnormal rise in covid −19 cases (CAR) using regression analysis revealed a significant positive effect on population density and a negative impact on ICCC and HDI. Until now, no empirical research has evaluated the counter-effects of governments’ protocol in containing a pandemic disease, by adopting an event study approach. Also, this study is the first in the literature to test the theoretical predictions of the cobra effect of the adopted protocol.