Did climatic seasonality control late Quaternary artiodactyl densities in western North America?

Abstract

We develop and test a hypothesis here that the seasonality of temperature and precipitation played a major role in determining the population densities of artiodactyls (e.g., Ovis canadensis, Odocoileus hemionus, and Antilocapra americana) across the terminal Pleistocene and Holocene of western North America. For much of this region, general circulation climate models and a range of paleoclimatic data suggest that seasonal extremes in temperature peaked during the terminal Pleistocene and early Holocene and that early and middle Holocene precipitation followed a winter-wet, summer-dry pattern—conditions known to depress artiodactyl densities. These trends are mirrored in a northern Bonneville Basin macrophysical climate simulation model from which we derive terminal Pleistocene and Holocene climatic values and three indices of climatic seasonality: (1) intra-annual temperature range, (2) summer precipitation intensity, and (3) winter precipitation intensity. These indices are arrayed against three detailed late Quaternary artiodactyl abundance records in the Bonneville Basin: a unique paleontological record of fecal pellet densities, and archaeological records of artiodactyl skeletal elements and large game hunting tools. Each of these artiodactyl abundance records shows significant correlations with the model-derived seasonality indices and suggests that artiodactyls occurred in low densities from the terminal Pleistocene through the middle Holocene—substantial increases occurred during equable, summer-wet periods of the late Holocene. Archaeological vertebrate records from across western North America show very similar temporal patterns in artiodactyl abundances suggesting that the trend and its climate-based causes may be a very general one. These conclusions have far-reaching implications not only for our understanding of ancient human hunting and land use patterns, but for the future management of artiodactyls under scenarios of global warming that also project dramatic increases in extreme climate.