Did austerity cause the rise in deaths seen in England and Wales in 2015?

Abstract

Several recent studies have suggested that austerity led to higher deaths in England and Wales in 2015. There are several key observations that argue against this conclusion. A rise in deaths also occurred in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland where health and social care is integrated, and did not suffer the degree of austerity imposed on adult social care in England. In addition, there is no apparent relationship between local authority deprivation score and the increase in deaths in 2015. Furthermore, austerity cannot explain those local authorities which showed a reduction in deaths in 2015. Deaths across Europe likewise displayed a significant increase in 2015, which appears linked to events leading up to a spike in deaths in January 2015. This initiated ongoing effects on mortality and morbidity. Deaths also show on/off switching in all countries so far studied, and show additional diversity at sub-local government geographies. The single-year-of-age patterns in mortality observed in one of the studies contradicts a general effect due to austerity, and has been reported elsewhere. These patterns may arise from ‘original antigenic sin’ and if so this would suggest an infectious aetiology. Increased hospital bed occupancy for certain conditions also appears to characterise this and previous events.