Diagnostic serial interval as a novel indicator for contact tracing effectiveness exemplified with the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea

Abstract

BackgroundThe clinical onset serial interval is often used as a proxy for the transmission interval of an infectious disease. For SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, data on clinical onset serial intervals is limited, since symptom onset dates are not routinely recorded and do not exist in asymptomatic carriers. MethodsWe define the diagnostic serial interval as the time between the diagnosis dates of the infector and infectee. Based on the DS4C project data on SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in South Korea, we estimate the means of the diagnostic serial interval, the clinical onset serial interval, and the difference between the two. We use the balanced cluster bootstrap method to construct 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. ResultsThe mean of the diagnostic serial interval was estimated to be 3.63 days (95% CI: 3.24, 4.01). The diagnostic serial interval was significantly shorter than the clinical onset serial interval (estimated mean difference −1.12 days, 95% CI: −1.98, −0.26). ConclusionsThe relatively short diagnostic serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in South Korea are likely due to the country’s extensive efforts towards contact tracing. We propose the mean diagnostic serial interval as a new indicator for the effectiveness of a country’s contact tracing as part of the epidemic surveillance.