Diagnostic accuracy validation study of the M6 model without initial serum progesterone (M6NP) in triage of pregnancy of unknown location

Abstract

ObjectivesThe M6 prediction model stratifies the risk of development of ectopic pregnancy (EP) for women with pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) into low risk or high risk, using human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) and progesterone levels at the initial visit to a gynaecological emergency room and hCG level at 48 h. This study evaluated a second model, the M6NP model, which does not include the progesterone level at the initial visit. The main aim of this study was to validate the diagnostic accuracy of the M6NP model in a population of French women. Study designBetween January and December 2021, all women with an hCG measurement from the gynaecological emergency department of a teaching hospital were screened for inclusion in this study. Women with a pregnancy location determined before or at the second visit were excluded. The diagnostic test was based on logistic regression of the M6NP model, with classification into two groups: high risk of EP (≥5%) and low risk of EP (<5%). The reference test was the final outcome based on clinical, biological and sonographic results: failed PUL (FPUL), intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) or EP. Diagnostic performance for risk prediction of EP, and also IUP and FPUL, was calculated. ResultsIn total, 759 women with possible PUL were identified. After screening, 341 women with PUL were included in the main analysis. Of these, 186 (54.5%) were classified as low risk, including three (1.6%) with a final outcome of EP. The remaining 155 women with PUL were classified as high risk, of whom 60 (38.7%), 66 (42.8%) and 29 (18.7%) had a final outcome of FPUL, IUP and EP, respectively. Of the 32 women with PUL with a final outcome of EP, 29 (90.6%) were classified as high risk and three (9.4%) were classified as low risk. Therefore, the performance of the M6NP model to predict EP had a negative predictive value of 98.4%, a positive predictive value of 18.7%, sensitivity of 90.6% and specificity of 59.2%. If the prediction model had been used, it is estimated that 4.5 visits per patient could have been prevented. ConclusionThe M6NP model could be used safely in the French population for risk stratification of PUL. Its use in clinical practice should result in a substantial reduction in the number of visits to a gynaecological emergency room.