Diagnosis of Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for Volcanic Earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius

Abstract

The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the CN algorithm is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M0, within a region a priori delimited. Here the CN algorithm is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius during the period from February 1972 to June 2004 are considered, and the magnitude threshold M0 selecting the events to be predicted is varied within the range: 3.0–3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5–3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment ``Seismic History'' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the CN algorithm can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius.