Diagnosis of Critical Risk Sources in the Operation Safety of the Central Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Based on the Improved FMEA Method

Abstract

For the inaccurate description of the failure level in the traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method, the research uses the fuzzy evidence reasoning theory to improve the traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method. Based on the subjective weight determined by the analytic hierarchy process and the objective weight determined by the gray correlation degree method, we get the combined weight of risk factors through the principle of minimum discrimination information. Combined with the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), an improved risk sequence number (IRPN) method was proposed to diagnose the key risk sources. In the case study on a canal section of the Central Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion in Henan, the key risk factors for the operation safety of the project are identified as rainstorm and flood, geological conditions, geological disasters, and design safety coefficient, and the corresponding prevention measures are put forward to provide help for the safe operation of the Central Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion.