Abstract

Extra-tropical cyclones that develop near the east coast of Australia often have severe consequences such as flash flooding and damaging winds and seas, as well as beneficial consequences such as being responsible for heavy rainfall events that contribute significantly to total rainfall and runoff. There is subjective evidence that the development of most major events, commonly known as East Coast Lows, is associated with the movement of a high amplitude upper-tropospheric trough system over eastern Australia. This paper examines a number of upper-tropospheric diagnostic quantities that might provide a basis for preparing a climatology of the large-scale drivers of east-coast cyclogenesis. A preliminary climatology of these diagnostic quantities, based on ECMWF interim reanalyses, is compared with a database of observed East Coast Low events. The potential application of these diagnostics to global climate model simulations of past and future climates is also discussed.

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