Abstract
Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We demonstrate an integrated approach to exploring these issues through the lens of a social-ecological system, combining remote and in-situ earth observations, hydrologic and climate models, and social surveys. Specifically, we examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. We find that climate change will lead to increased precipitation, necessitating a shift in dam operations, from maintaining low flows to reducing flood hazards. We also find that existing water governance systems in Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia are ill-prepared to address the problem. We conclude that the solution space for addressing these complex issues will be highly constrained unless major deficiencies in transboundary water governance, strategic planning, financial capacity, information sharing, and law enforcement are remedied in the next decades.
Highlights
Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty
The Se Kong River originates in Lao PDR and the Sre Pok and Se San rivers rise in the central highlands of Vietnam; all three rivers merge in Cambodia shortly before flowing into the main stem of the Mekong River
We find that predicted climate change will lead to more precipitation, increased seasonal streamflow variability and that dam operation will have limited ability to adapt to the changing flow regime
Summary
Managing transboundary river basins requires balancing tradeoffs of sustainable water use and coping with climate uncertainty. We examine how climate change and dam development could impact the Se Kong, Se San and Sre Pok rivers in the Mekong region. A logical response to these pending issues has been to develop and quantitatively model future scenarios that help identify specific challenges and the solution space for water resource managers. Typically, these analyses overlook the water governance system in place, which determines what is a feasible course of action for planning and m itigation[12,13,14]. Altered the flow regime, sediment transport, and fish migration with broader implications for the Lower Mekong Basin including the sustainability of the Tonle Sap Lake and the Mekong delta
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