Abstract
DHI scenarios can usefully be divided into 1) ‘high grade DHI’ scenarios that have DHI characteristics consistent with the trap and indicative of a fluid contact and 2) ‘low-grade DHI ’ scenarios that have amplitude and AVO anomalies or low confidence fluid indications. This categorization is justified based on rock physics principles and historical data. Highgrade DHIs warrant a positive uplift to the chance of success of the prospect whereas low-grade DHIs generally do not. In late stage basin settings (such as the North Sea), with pressure to find prospects that pass internal risk and volumetric thresholds, it is easy to have a myopic focus on seismic amplitude, misunderstand the relative importance of geological and geophysical information and to exaggerate the significance of amplitude and AVO anomalies. Offsetting these tendencies requires an integration of prospect lookback/base rate information with bias mitigation strategies in the risking process.
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