Devising a fairer method for adjusting target scores in interrupted one-day international cricket

Abstract

One-day international cricket matches face the problem of weather interruption. In such circumstances, a so-called rain rule is used to decide the outcome. A variety of approaches for constructing such rules has been proposed, with the Duckworth-Lewis method being preferred in the sport. There are a number of issues to consider in reasoning about the effectiveness of a rain rule, notably accuracy (does the rule make the right decision?) and fairness (are both teams treated equally?). We develop an approach that is a hybrid of resource-based and so-called probability-preserving approaches and provide empirical evidence that this hybrid method is superior in terms of fairness while competitive in terms of accuracy.