Developmental variability and stability in continuous-time host–parasitoid models

Abstract

Insect host–parasitoid systems are often modeled using delay-differential equations, with a fixed development time for the juvenile host and parasitoid stages. We explore here the effects of distributed development on the stability of these systems, for a random parasitism model incorporating an invulnerable host stage, and a negative binomial model that displays generation cycles. A shifted gamma distribution was used to model the distribution of development time for both host and parasitoid stages, using the range of parameter values suggested by a literature survey. For the random parasitism model, the addition of biologically plausible levels of developmental variability could potentially double the area of stable parameter space beyond that generated by the invulnerable host stage. Only variability in host development time was stabilizing in this model. For the negative binomial model, development variability reduced the likelihood of generation cycles, and variability in host and parasitoid was equally stabilizing. One source of stability in these models may be aggregation of risk, because hosts with varying development times have different vulnerabilities. High levels of variability in development time occur in many insects and so could be a common source of stability in host–parasitoid systems.