Abstract
Accurate predictions regarding how climate change affects species and populations are crucial for the development of effective conservation measures. However, models forecasting the impact of climate change on natural environments do not often consider the geographic variation of an organism's life history. We examined variation in developmental plasticity to changing temperature in the pool frog (Pelophylax lessonae) across its distribution by studying populations from central areas (Poland), edge populations (Latvia) and northern marginal populations (Sweden). Relative to central and edge populations, northern populations experience lower and less variable temperature and fewer episodes of warm weather during larval development. Plasticity in larval life-history traits was highest at the northern range margin: larvae from marginal populations shortened larval period and increased growth rate more than larvae from central and edge populations when reared at high temperature. Maintaining high growth and development under the scarce spells of warm weather is likely adaptive for high-latitude populations. The detection of high levels of developmental plasticity in isolated, marginal populations suggests that they may be better able to respond to the temperature regimes expected under climate change than often predicted, reflecting the need to incorporate geographic variation in life-history traits into models forecasting responses to environmental change.
Highlights
Climate change is altering entire ecosystems by affecting species distributions, life histories and community dynamics (Parmesan 2006)
Plasticity in the duration of the larval period differed between geographic areas (F3,4.5 = 540.3, P < 0.001), and was higher in populations located at the northern margin of the species distribution
Plasticity in mass at metamorphosis differed between areas (F3,5.1 = 96.82, P < 0.001, Fig. 2B), posterior General linear models (GLM) and Tukey’s tests did not reveal but a nonsignificant difference (P = 0.089) between marginal and edge areas
Summary
Climate change is altering entire ecosystems by affecting species distributions, life histories and community dynamics (Parmesan 2006). To persist under changing environmental conditions, organisms can respond through migration, plasticity and/or genetic adaptation. If local environmental conditions change, some organisms can disperse to new areas in order to track their optimal environment. Due to habitat fragmentation and low dispersal capacities, many species must respond to environmental change in situ (Chevin et al 2010). This requires either changes in the genetic constitution of the population as a consequence of adaptive evolution, or plastic responses that adjust the phenotype to the new environment without changes in genetic composition of the population, at least in the short term (Meril€a and Hendry 2014). Plasticity, in particular, may play a key role in the initial steps of the adaptation to rapid environmental change when genetic adaptation, a typically slower process that may span many generations, is unable to generate optimal phenotypes at the required pace (Gomez-Mestre and Jovani 2013)
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