Development trend of quantity of patents of China patent law

Abstract

Among fierce competition, it is imperative for industry to be dedicated to adjusting strategic planning in the related R&D activities. However patent is a defensive weapon to protect R&D achievements and an attack weapon to contain the competitive opponents. The emergence of China economy generates the establishment of many own brands one after another, facilitating that China is gradually transformed from imitator. Regarding comprehensive aspect, if decision makers can use the efficient prediction tools to conduct patent trend that will benefit the establishment of precise R&D strategy. To start from this point, the research studies the patent development trend in China for the last few years. The research applies the empirical analysis to study the model accuracy. In the selection of prediction tools, Grey theory is a prevalent prediction method that can be constructed with limited information and can provide a better prediction advantage for short-term prediction. Additionally, application of Grey prediction method featured with handling non-linear problems, insufficient information sources and small sample. In the meantime, the research adds linear regression, exponential smoothing and moving average and takes some patents in China as background to conduct selection among different prediction models. The results indicate that Grey theory is not only equipped with advantage for short-term prediction but also has considerable accuracy than the other traditional models even statistics increase and is under steady growth of trend.