Abstract
The main factors that influence the consumption of heat energy in the centralized heating supply systems in the long term are discussed in this article. Consumption of heat energy by the population for space heating and hot water will be the most significant component of the demand. The possible extents of heat consumption and heat saving in the buildings of cities are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the advanced development of housing construction and the quality of dwelling units. It is shown that it is necessary to increase the annual creation of new pipeline networks to decrease accidents and heat losses. Several scenarios for the development of centralized heat supply systems within the limits of the long-term forecast of the FEC (Fuel and Energy Complex) development of the country until 2030 are discussed. It is shown that major changes in the structure of heat production can occur as limits increase for carbon dioxide emissions in centralized heat supply systems.
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