Development prediction of logistics industry in Henan province and its dynamic analysis

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish a group of grey prediction models and relative degree model to study the characteristics and trend of the logistics industry development in Henan province scientifically. The study results can provide references for the development policy of the logistics industry in Henan province. Design/methodology/approach – The paper constructs grey prediction models and grey buffer operator models which are related to the distribution of logistics industry in Henan province, and selects prediction models by comparing model accuracy, and use them to forecast the development trend of logistics industry in future ten years of Henan province. Using the grey relative models, the paper analyses development dynamic and prospect which support the development of logistics industry, and provide some references for transferring the pattern of economic growth of Henan province, forming new economic growth point and formulating relevant policies. High prediction accuracy models are selected to forecast the future development trend of logistics industry in the next ten years. Findings – Results show that the modern logistics industry in Henan province has been a steady growth in overall, the main growth points of the logistics industry development in Henan province are roadway miles (km), roadway (100 million tonnes/km), freight turnover (100 million tonnes/km) and waterway (100 million tonnes), the growth points for the future development of logistics industry in Henan province are the roadway freight volume, roadway passenger volume and waterway freight volume. Practical implications – Regional economic competition has become an important index for measuring a country's economic development level. Logistics industry plays an important role in the regional economic development, such as promoting coordinated development of regional economy and upgrading industrial optimization, and playing a major role in industrial transfer. Hence, logistics industry, which is urgently needed to solve by the government, has become important forces for promoting the growth of economy and a basic pillar industries of regional economy. Originality/value – The paper presents the systematic results of development prediction of modern logistics industry in Henan province and its dynamic analysis by using grey systems theory, not only to predict the trend of the development of the logistics industry, also to analyse the future development of logistics industry in the leading power factors.