Development of ZWIPERO, A Model Forecasting Sporulation and Infection Periods of Onion Downy Mildew based on Meteorological Data

Abstract

The weather-based forecasting model ZWIPERO was developed by the German Weather Service and determines the risk of sporulation and infection of Peronospora destructor quantitatively based on actual as well as predicted weather data (temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness, precipitation). The model allows precise planning of disease monitoring and infection-related application of fungicides. ZWIPERO is a more complex mathematical model than the previously published models for downy mildew. In order to operate ZWIPERO independently of the actual field location and season, the time of sunrise and sunset of the location are exactly determined by a subroutine. Another subroutine provides simulated microclimatic input variables based on local production data as well as actual and hourly predicted (up to 4 days) standard weather data. Starting at the time of 'sunrise + 7 h', ZWIPERO calculates the number of sporangia produced, the time of onset of sporangia release, as well as the number of infections possible and the number of sporangia which may survive the day for each 24-h time step. Field evaluations of sporulation periods of downy mildew showed that the simulated micrometeorological input variables are reliable. As the actual plant development, the susceptibility and the disease incidence in the field are not taken into account, ZWIPERO has to be considered primarily as a decision support system for extension services and growers.