Development of world famine database for 1840–2019 and risk assessment of its occurrence and severity

Abstract

Famine still exists in this world, hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 2: zero hunger. The history and the mechanisms of famine have been broadly studied; however, few studies have focused on quantitative and long-term analyses of the general characteristics of famine. This study analyzes the factors influencing famine and estimates its risks. We developed a historical famine database and estimated the probability and intensity of famine through regression analysis. Herein, we identified that less food production and underdevelopment are related to famine occurrence, and famine tends to be more intense in less urbanized and dryer areas. By extrapolating the regression with future scenarios, we revealed that famine would be less likely to happen in the future mainly due to GDP growth, although conflict would be the key factor of future famine risk. This study is one of the first steps in the quantitative analysis of long-term famine risk.