Development of transferable neighborhood land use regression models for predicting intra-urban ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) spatial variations.

Abstract

Land use regression (LUR) models have been extensively used to predict air pollution exposure in epidemiological and environmental studies. The lack of dense routine monitoring networks in big cities places increased emphasis on the need for LUR models to be developed using purpose-designed neighborhood-scale monitoring data. However, the unsatisfactory model transferability limits these neighborhood LUR models to be then applied to other intra-urban areas in predicting air pollution exposure. In this study, we tackled this issue by proposing a method to develop transferable neighborhood NO2 LUR models with comparable predictive power based on only micro-scale predictor variables for modeling intra-urban ambient air pollution exposure. Taking Auckland metropolis, New Zealand, as a case study, the proposed method was applied to three neighborhoods (urban, central business district, and dominion road) and compared with the corresponding counterpart models developed using pools of (a) only macro-scale predictor variables and (b) a mixture of both micro- and macro-scale predictor variables (traditional method). The results showed that the models using only macro-scale variables achieved the lowest accuracy (R2: 0.388-0.484) and had the worst direct (R2: 0.0001-0.349) and indirect transferability (R2: 0.07-0.352). Those models using the traditional method had the highest model fitting R2 (0.629-0.966) with lower cross-validation R2 (0.495-0.941) and slightly better direct transferability (R2: 0.0003-0.386) but suffered poor model interpretability when indirectly transferred to new locations. Our proposed models had comparable model fitting R2 (0.601-0.966) and the best cross-validation R2 (0.514-0.941). They also had the strongest direct transferability (R2: 0.006-0.590) and moderate-to-good indirect transferability (R2: 0.072-0.850) with much better model interpretability. This study advances our knowledge of developing transferable LUR models for the very first time from the perspective of the scale of the predictor variables used in the model development and will significantly benefit the wider application of LUR approaches in epidemiological and environmental studies.