Development of the method for modeling operational processes for tasks related to decision making

Igor Lutsenko,Nadezhda Karabut,Iryna Oksanych,Igor Shevchenko

doi:10.15587/1729-4061.2018.126446

Abstract

A solution to any problem is valuable only if the results of the solution are reliable. This axiomatic statement is trivial. However, despite the fact that this statement is undeniable, it is violated regularly in problems of operations research. This is due to the fact that the proposed evaluation criteria are not verified and possibility of using indirect methods of effectiveness evaluation of operations is not substantiated. The problem point of modeling was shown using the example of comparison of operational processes, based on equally effective operations with multiple duration. This point is related to the fact that it is necessary to take into account inter-operational losses while modeling the process, based on the use of shorter operations in relation to an alternative operational process. Ignoring these losses can lead to making a mistaken decision or to errors in verification of estimation indicators. In a number of cases the problem can be solved using specially conducted experimental studies. However, if there is a set of unverified estimation expressions or in verification problems, a formal approach can be used. Under this approach, uncertainty, arising in the process of modeling, can be removed by using the capabilities of a verified indicator itself. The developed method for modeling allows us to determine the scope of constraints on parameters of modeled operations. The probability of an error in results of modeling in problems, related to decision making, is excluded on condition of taking into account this region

Highlights

Investment possibilities of the society and, the pace of development of industry depend on the efficiency of utilizing available resources.To argue that a decision that was made improves efficiency, without using thorough methods of operations research, is possible only in one case
In the case of modeling of operational processes for the verification purpose, the width of the region of impermissible values of PES is determined from the condition of equality of the left and the right parts of the verified expression
Steps 3–5 are repeated for each short operation within the interval of duration of a long operation

Summary

Introduction

Investment possibilities of the society and, the pace of development of industry depend on the efficiency of utilizing available resources. To argue that a decision that was made improves efficiency, without using thorough methods of operations research, is possible only in one case. This is the case when, as a result of a new technological solution, operational costs and operation time decrease while the quality and cost estimation of the total output product of an operation do not decrease [1, 2]. Success stability in the investment activity depends on the reliability of results of such a research Complexity of solving this problem is well traced in the history of formation and development of operations research [3,4,5]. Since modeling of operational processes is the basic tool for direct assessment of operation effectiveness, development of a method for improving the accuracy of modeling is an important scientific task

Literature review and problem statement

The aim and objectives of the study

Determining the rules of comparison of results of operational processes

Development of the method for modeling operational processes

Solution to the problem of modeling operations using the developed method

Conclusions