Development of the instantaneous unit hydrograph using stochastic differential equations

Abstract

Recognizing that simple watershed conceptual models such as the Nash cascade ofn equal linear reservoirs continue to be reasonable means to approximate the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH), it is natural to accept that random errors generated by climatological variability of data used in fitting an imprecise conceptual model will produce an IUH which is random itself. It is desirable to define the random properties of the IUH in a watershed in order to have a more realistic hydrologic application of this important function. Since in this case the IUH results from a series of differential equations where one or more of the uncertain parameters is treated in stochastic terms, then the statistical properties of the IUH are best described by the solution of the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE's). This article attempts to present a methodology to derive the IUH in a small watershed by combining a classical conceptual model with the theory of SDE's. The procedure is illustrated with the application to the Middle Thames River, Ontario, Canada, and the model is verified by the comparison of the simulated statistical measures of the IUH with the corresponding observed ones with good agreement.