Development of Spectral Hazard Map for Indonesia with a Return Period of 2500 Years using Probabilistic Method

Asrurifak M,Budiono B,Triyoso W,Hendriyawan Hendriyawan,Irsyam M

doi:10.9744/ced.12.1.52-62

Abstract

This study is performed to develop spectral hazard map for Indonesia with a Return Period of 2500 years earthquake. It will be proposed for revision of the Indonesian hazard map in SNI-03-1726-2002 as response to the meeting organized by the Department of Public Works on 27- October-2008 in Jakarta. The meeting has decided to revise the Indonesia hazard map by referring to IBC-2006 where spectral acceleration values at Peak Ground Acceleration/PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 second with a return period of 2500 year will be applied for general buildings. The spectral hazard map was analyzed using total probability method and three dimensional (3-D) source models with recent seismotectonic parameters. Four source models were used in this analysis, namely: shallow background, deep background, fault, and subduction source models. Generally, the results of analysis show the values of PGA with a return period of 2500 years relatively higher 1.2-3.0 times than in SNI-03-1726-2002.

Highlights

Indonesia has three earthquake hazard maps issued by the Department of Public Works
The length of the mapped fault and downdip width estimated from seismicity may be used to calculate maximum magnitudes of earthquakes expected to occur on these faults [30]
It is of importance that the selection was based on earthquake mechanism, which is generally categorized into background, fault and subduction source zones

Summary

Introduction

Several great earthquake occurrences in Indonesia in the last two years inquire revision of seismic hazard parameters in SNI 03-1726-2002. These earthquake events must be considered in determining seismic hazard parameters especially maximum credible earthquake magnitude (MCE). These seismic hazard map were developed using total probability theorem [4] and by applying area sources model (2-dimension model).

Results

Conclusion