Abstract
Abstract It is important to study the risk posed by heavy shipping traffic to a subsea pipeline located near an industrial port area. In this context, it is essential to estimate the accident frequency in an attempt to eliminate subjectivity in the analysis process. This study proposes a model for estimating the ship sinking frequency over the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area. The Madura Strait is one of the busiest shipping lanes in Indonesia. Many ships pass through the fairway in the strait, and many industrial ports have been built in this area. The proposed model is developed based on Fujii’s Model, and it uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data as a ship traffic survey. Ship sinking accidents are considered based on ship–ship collisions over the critical subsea pipeline area. The ship–ship collision locations around the subsea pipeline and the ship traffic distribution models are estimated using AIS data. The causation probability Pc is determined based on a synthetics approach using a Bayesian network modified from Det Norske Veritas’ and Hänninen’s models. The causation probability is estimated by considering factors such as human performance, weather, technical problems, and support. The proposed model is validated by comparing its result with actual accident records for the Madura Strait area. The ratio value of 0.33 is considered to be reasonably agreement (ratio value ≥0.2).
Highlights
Natural gas has emerged as an important commodity in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region from the viewpoint of economic policies, energy diversification, and mitigation of climate change
Where Naiz, the number of ship–ship collision candidates for subject ship belonging to class i in zone z if ships are on a collision course; Pc, the causation probability defined as the probability of failing to avoid a collision when on a collision course; and Pf, the conditional probability of a ship foundering after ship–ship collision
This study proposes a model for estimating the ship sinking frequency over a subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area
Summary
Natural gas has emerged as an important commodity in the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) region from the viewpoint of economic policies, energy diversification, and mitigation of climate change. Domestic and cross-border subsea pipeline networks in the ASEAN region are being developed rapidly to provide the necessary infrastructure for the more widespread utilization of natural gas (APERC 2000). The safety of the subsea pipeline is a critical issue because the pipeline is likely to be exposed to damage owing to external factors such as dragging anchors, sinking ships, and other objects falling to the sea floor. This study proposes a model for estimating the frequency of ships sinking over the subsea pipeline in the Madura Strait area. This model is developed based on the concept introduced by Fujii, and it uses Automatic Identification System (AIS) data for the shipping traffic survey. The shipping traffic distributions in the Madura Strait fairway are estimated using AIS data
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
