Development of severity and mortality prediction models for covid-19 patients at emergency department including the chest x-ray

Abstract

ObjectivesTo develop prognosis prediction models for COVID-19 patients attending an emergency department (ED) based on initial chest X-ray (CXR), demographics, clinical and laboratory parameters. MethodsAll symptomatic confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital ED between February 24th and April 24th 2020 were recruited. CXR features, clinical and laboratory variables and CXR abnormality indices extracted by a convolutional neural network (CNN) diagnostic tool were considered potential predictors on this first visit. The most serious individual outcome defined the three severity level: 0) home discharge or hospitalization ≤ 3 days, 1) hospital stay >3 days and 2) intensive care requirement or death. Severity and in-hospital mortality multivariable prediction models were developed and internally validated. The Youden index was used for the optimal threshold selection of the classification model. ResultsA total of 440 patients were enrolled (median 64 years; 55.9% male); 13.6% patients were discharged, 64% hospitalized, 6.6% required intensive care and 15.7% died. The severity prediction model included oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SatO2/FiO2), age, C-reactive protein (CRP), lymphocyte count, extent score of lung involvement on CXR (ExtScoreCXR), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), D-dimer level and platelets count, with AUC-ROC = 0.94 and AUC-PRC = 0.88. The mortality prediction model included age, SatO2/FiO2, CRP, LDH, CXR extent score, lymphocyte count and D-dimer level, with AUC-ROC = 0.97 and AUC-PRC = 0.78. The addition of CXR CNN-based indices did not improve significantly the predictive metrics. ConclusionThe developed and internally validated severity and mortality prediction models could be useful as triage tools in ED for patients with COVID-19 or other virus infections with similar behaviour.