Abstract
Abstract. Bangladesh is crisscrossed by the branches and tributaries of three main river systems, the Ganges, Bramaputra and Meghna (GBM). The temporal variation of water availability of those rivers has an impact on the different water usages such as irrigation, urban water supply, hydropower generation, navigation etc. Thus, seasonal flow outlook can play important role in various aspects of water management. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in Bangladesh provides short term and medium term flood forecast, and there is a wide demand from end-users about seasonal flow outlook for agricultural purposes. The objective of this study is to develop a seasonal flow outlook model in Bangladesh based on rainfall forecast. It uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal precipitation, temperature forecast to simulate HYDROMAD hydrological model. Present study is limited for Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins. ARIMA correction is applied to correct the model error. The performance of the model is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The model result shows good performance with R2 value of 0.78 and NSE of 0.61 for the Brahmaputra River Basin, and R2 value of 0.72 and NSE of 0.59 for the Ganges River Basin for the period of May to July 2015. The result of the study indicates strong potential to make seasonal outlook to be operationalized.
Highlights
Bangladesh is located at the downstream end of the three major river basins, collectively known as Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna (GBM) basin
The total catchment area is approximately 1.6 million km2 of which only about 7.5 % lies within Bangladesh and the rest, 92.5 % lies in India, China, Nepal and Bhutan
It is estimated that an average flow of 1 009 000 million m3 passes through these river systems during the monsoon season and monsoon precipitation is the major source flow (FFWC, 2014)
Summary
Bangladesh is located at the downstream end of the three major river basins, collectively known as Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna (GBM) basin. It is estimated that an average flow of 1 009 000 million m3 passes through these river systems during the monsoon season and monsoon precipitation is the major source flow (FFWC, 2014). The rivers in these three catchments mostly are originated from Himalayas mountain ranges and the pattern of flow, timing and intensity is governed by the quantity and distribution of precipitation, its form (rain or snow) and seasonality (ICIMOD, 2009).
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